Nashville, TN — As Tennesseans wrap up holiday celebrations, long-range forecasts suggest the Volunteer State may be headed for an unseasonably warm and potentially record-challenging start to 2026. Rather than typical winter cold, a strong warm pattern is expected to dominate the region during the final days of December.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 8–14 day temperature outlook for December 27 through January 2 strongly favors above-normal temperatures across Tennessee, including the Nashville metro area as well as Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Clarksville. This period usually features some of the coldest average temperatures of the year.
In Nashville, late-December highs typically sit in the mid-40s. Forecast trends now suggest daytime temperatures could run 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs potentially reaching the upper 50s or even low 60s on several days between Christmas and New Year’s. Under the right conditions, daily temperature records could be approached or broken.
The warmth is being driven by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States, limiting intrusions of Arctic air and allowing mild Gulf air to flow northward. Overnight lows are also expected to remain elevated, reducing the likelihood of snow or ice and keeping travel conditions relatively favorable during the busy holiday stretch.
Looking ahead, NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026 continues to signal above-average temperatures across much of Tennessee, particularly central and western areas. While brief cool downs are still possible, the overall pattern suggests winter cold may struggle to gain traction early in the new year.
The extended warmth could impact energy demand, agriculture, and winter recreation, while also delaying any sustained snow cover. While forecasts can evolve, current signals point toward a mild and unusually warm opening to 2026 for Tennessee.
