Nashville, TN – Tennessee may see a better chance at a white Christmas this year as new NOAA long-range forecasts show a colder and wetter pattern developing from December 13–26 — a critical window for holiday travel across the Mid-South and Appalachia.
According to NOAA, Tennessee sits within an “Above Normal” precipitation zone stretching across the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast. This pattern traditionally brings more storm activity, increasing the potential for winter weather if colder air settles into the region.
Temperature outlooks lean in that direction. Much of Tennessee — including Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga — is placed inside a “Leaning Below Normal” temperature corridor for the second half of December. For a state that often rides the fine line between cold rain and snow, these colder-than-average temperatures are a key ingredient for holiday snow chances.
According to NOAA meteorologists, combining increased moisture with below-normal temperatures significantly improves the likelihood of wintry precipitation across the Mid-South. Higher-elevation regions such as the Cumberland Plateau and the Smokies already hold stronger historical odds for a white Christmas, and the current outlook further strengthens those chances. Even middle and western Tennessee could see improved prospects if cold air aligns with approaching systems.
Forecasters emphasize that specific storms cannot yet be predicted, but the December 18–24 stretch is highlighted as potentially active. Multiple storm systems are likely to track across the region, and any that tap into the colder air mass could bring travel disruptions along I-40, I-24, and I-65 right before Christmas.
Residents planning holiday travel should monitor updated forecasts beginning mid-December as storm timing and snowfall potential come into sharper focus.
