NASHVILLE, Tenn. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 16, hints at a chillier, more changeable season across the Tennessee Valley — with the potential for at least a few winter storms and possibly a dusting of snow around Christmas. The Climate Prediction Center’s guidance shows equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation and temperatures, signaling a mixed pattern that could swing sharply between warm spells and cold snaps.
According to NOAA, La Niña conditions will remain the primary driver this winter, typically steering moisture north and leaving the Tennessee Valley near the storm track dividing line. That means while some weeks may feel mild, others could turn sharply colder with snow or ice possible from northern Mississippi to eastern Tennessee. “We’re expecting higher storm variability this winter,” NOAA meteorologists said, “and that opens the door to surprise snow events.”
Equal-chance outlooks often mean a high degree of uncertainty — but also opportunity. A single strong Arctic surge could transform rain to snow across key travel routes such as I-40, I-65, and I-75. December looks seasonably cool, with a small but real chance of a white Christmas in the higher elevations near Knoxville and Chattanooga.
As February and March 2026 approach, colder air may settle deeper into the region, raising odds for late-season wintry weather before a gradual spring warmup. Residents are advised to prepare for quick pattern shifts — keeping emergency kits, warm layers, and tire chains ready for any icy morning commute.
