Nashville, TN – The Tennessee Valley is forecasting a warmer-than-normal holiday week across Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, and surrounding areas before colder air sweeps in during early December.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day temperature outlook for November 22–28, 2025 places the entire Tennessee Valley firmly in the above-normal temperature zone. Residents traveling through Nashville, Huntsville, Birmingham, Louisville, Knoxville, Memphis, and northern Mississippi can expect a mild Thanksgiving stretch with highs running several degrees warmer than typical late-November conditions.
The warm pattern is tied to the ongoing La Niña, which is keeping the strongest cold air locked into the western half of the U.S. while the South and Southeast maintain milder temperatures through Thanksgiving.
But that pattern flips shortly after the holiday. The week 3–4 outlook (November 29–December 12) shows a transition to below-normal temperatures across Tennessee, Kentucky, northern Alabama, and northern Mississippi—signaling a colder, more winter-like start to December for the region.
Early December Temperature Highlights by State
- Tennessee (Nashville, Knoxville, Memphis): Strong signal for below-normal temps; frost and freeze cycles likely.
- Alabama (Huntsville, Birmingham): Cooler-than-normal pattern favored, especially across northern counties.
- Kentucky (Louisville, Lexington): Early December chill with below-normal daytime highs.
- Northern Mississippi (Tupelo, Oxford): Mild Thanksgiving, then cooling trend brings seasonable-to-colder stretches.
- North Georgia Influence (Chattanooga area): Temperatures trend colder than normal with increased morning frost risk.
Travelers across I-65, I-40, I-24 and the Appalachian corridors should expect smooth and mild conditions for Thanksgiving but prepare for a colder and more seasonal pattern as December begins.
