Nashville, TN – The Tennessee Valley may experience a wet and occasionally unsettled stretch during the Thanksgiving travel window, as new federal outlooks show a 40–50% or higher probability of above-normal precipitation across the region from November 23 through November 29. With temperatures expected to run near or above the freezing mark, cold rain is the dominant outcome, though a brief mix cannot be ruled out in the highest elevations.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the Tennessee Valley sits on the southern edge of a broad storm corridor stretching from the Midwest into the Southeast. This pattern tends to produce frequent rounds of moisture during late November but keeps cold air bottled farther north.
In Middle Tennessee—including Nashville, Murfreesboro, Clarksville, and Columbia—rain is likely throughout portions of the period. Temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing, meaning travel concerns will stem from wet roads, reduced visibility, and heavier downpours at times.
In West Tennessee, including Memphis, Jackson, and Dyersburg, the pattern favors periods of steady rain, with little to no chance of wintry precipitation. However, travel may still slow along I-40 and US-51 during the busiest departure windows.
The eastern Tennessee Valley, including Knoxville, Chattanooga, Cleveland, and Athens, sits slightly closer to marginal air. While cold rain remains most likely, the foothills of the Smokies could see a short-lived rain–snow mix if colder air filters in behind a passing system.
Farther south into northern Alabama and northern Mississippi—including Huntsville, Florence, Tupelo, and Columbus—rain is again the primary concern, though heavier showers could lead to slick roads and pockets of poor visibility.
Thanksgiving week brings some of the region’s highest travel volume along I-40, I-65, I-75, and the Natchez Trace. Even without snow, steady rainfall may cause congestion and delays.
Forecasters expect more precise timing early next week as short-range models begin detecting system-by-system trends.
