Nashville, TN – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Tennessee during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley, including all of Tennessee. This transition follows recent winter cold and signals a temporary move toward milder mid-February conditions.
In Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and surrounding communities, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the mid-40s to near 50 degrees. Forecast guidance suggests highs may frequently reach the 50s and possibly low 60s during this period. Similar warming is expected across West Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, where overnight lows are also forecast to moderate.
Across East Tennessee, including Knoxville, Chattanooga, and the Tri-Cities, temperatures are expected to trend above seasonal averages. In higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau and the Great Smoky Mountains, any lingering snowpack may begin to thaw during warmer afternoons, increasing runoff into creeks and streams.
Transportation corridors such as I-40, I-24, I-75, I-55, and I-65 may see generally improved travel conditions compared to recent colder periods. However, the Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential, meaning periods of rain are possible during the outlook window.
Rainfall combined with snowmelt could lead to rises on rivers including the Cumberland, Tennessee, Clinch, Duck, and Mississippi. While widespread flooding is not currently anticipated, localized ponding and minor river responses could occur, particularly in low-lying or poor-drainage areas.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on small ponds and mountain streams. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons statewide, though officials caution that cooler mornings and changing conditions remain possible.
Residents across Tennessee are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
