Nashville, Tennessee – A pronounced warmup is poised to take hold across Tennessee in the Feb. 21–27 window, with temperatures trending well above seasonal averages and rain chances climbing statewide.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Tennessee sits in a 50% to 60% probability zone for above-normal temperatures during the 8- to 14-day outlook. That signals afternoon highs running several degrees above late-February averages from Memphis to Knoxville, with milder mornings limiting frost concerns in many areas.
Rain chances are also elevated, with a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal precipitation. That setup favors multiple systems tracking through the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley, bringing rounds of showers during the period. West Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, could see steadier rainfall at times, while Middle and East Tennessee, including Nashville and Chattanooga, may experience periodic showers with brief heavier bursts.
Drivers should prepare for wet roadways along I-40, I-24 and I-75, especially during heavier rain when ponding can develop. Gusty winds may accompany stronger systems.
The broader pattern points to active, milder conditions rather than a return to prolonged winter chill. Additional updates from the National Weather Service may refine timing and rainfall totals as late February approaches.
