Springfield, MO — A pattern shift is setting up across the Ozarks as we move into the new week, bringing several rounds of rain and a growing potential for heavier rainfall by mid to late week. While today trends cooler with drier air filtering in, the overall theme for the upcoming days will be increasing moisture, warming temperatures, and eventually widespread rain chances.
Monday will feature a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly east of Highway 65, where moisture return will be a bit stronger. Most areas will remain dry, but isolated pockets of rain or a rumble of thunder are possible through Monday evening. Temperatures rise into the upper 50s to lower 70s, followed by a mild night.
By Tuesday, winds shift southerly and provide a noticeable warm-up, with highs climbing into the low to upper 70s, well above mid-November averages. Skies remain partly sunny, but this transitional day sets the stage for the more active weather to come.
The most significant system of the week arrives Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast confidence is increasing that a corridor of heavier rainfall could set up somewhere across the region, though the precise placement remains uncertain. Current probabilistic guidance from the National Weather Service suggests 70–90% odds of at least 0.25 inches, 70–85% odds of more than 0.50 inches, and 30–45% odds of rainfall exceeding 2 inches in localized areas including Springfield, Joplin, Branson, and West Plains.
Thunderstorms are also possible, particularly Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, which may enhance rainfall totals in narrow bands. Flooding concerns are low at this time but could rise if the heavier corridor aligns over the same locations for several hours.
Residents across southwest Missouri should monitor updates as midweek approaches. The potential for meaningful rainfall is increasing, and small adjustments in storm track could significantly affect localized totals.
