Albuquerque, NM – The Southwestern U.S. is starting November on a warm note, but forecasters say a Thanksgiving cooldown could finally hint at winter—especially in the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) update issued October 24, 2025, temperatures across the region will run above normal, with below-average precipitation through the first half of the month. That means dry, sunny conditions for most of Phoenix, Tucson, and Las Vegas, but mountain areas may see a pattern change later in November.
Forecasters note that a Pacific trough could slip inland around November 18–22, lowering snow levels to about 6,000 feet in parts of northern Arizona, the Mogollon Rim, and northern New Mexico. While totals should stay light, early snow could affect mountain passes and holiday travelers if the system strengthens.
Overall, the Southwest’s November forecast looks comfortable—but a pre-Thanksgiving storm could be the first reminder that winter isn’t far behind.
