Phoenix, Arizona – A broad late-winter warm-up is taking shape across the Southwest, delivering above-normal temperatures and a notably quiet weather pattern from California’s deserts through Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of west Texas. The shift is expected to support travel, outdoor activity, and early-season construction and agriculture across the region.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, the Feb. 9–15 outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the Southwest. The strongest signal centers over the Desert Southwest, placing Arizona and New Mexico firmly within a warmer-than-average pattern through mid-February.
In Arizona, including Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma, daytime highs are expected to climb into the 70s and low 80s, offering a distinctly springlike feel for February. Southern Nevada and southeast California, including Las Vegas and the lower Colorado River Valley, should see similar warmth with mild mornings and warm afternoons.
Across New Mexico, including Albuquerque and Las Cruces, temperatures trend above seasonal levels as well, though cooler nights will persist at higher elevations. Even west Texas communities near El Paso should see several mild afternoons.
Despite the warmth, the pattern remains dry. No organized rain or mountain snow systems are evident during this stretch, limiting travel impacts but increasing fire weather awareness in typically dry areas.
Cool desert nights remain possible, but overall conditions look calm and mild. Additional outlooks will determine when a more active Southwest pattern may return later in February.
