Albuquerque, NM – A weak La Niña pattern settling into the Pacific is projected to keep the Southwest unusually dry and mild through Winter 2026, continuing a multi-season trend of below-average precipitation. According to the National Weather Service Albuquerque, cooler Pacific waters typically steer the subtropical jet north, leaving Arizona and New Mexico on the warm, dry side of the storm track. That shift often means fewer winter storms, sparse snowpack, and expanding drought across desert and high-plains areas.
Forecasters expect daytime highs to run 3–7 degrees above normal, with crisp nights but limited moisture. Ranchers and water districts are preparing for reduced runoff and early-season irrigation stress. State forestry agencies warn that vegetation curing from autumn dryness could elevate wildfire risk as early as February, particularly along the Rio Grande Valley and central Arizona plateau.
Officials urge residents to clear brush, secure outdoor materials against strong west winds, and report any unattended burns. Occasional cold fronts may briefly dip temperatures below freezing at higher elevations, yet sustained storm systems remain unlikely until spring. The combination of warmth, low humidity, and gusty conditions underscores what’s shaping up to be another challenging La Niña winter for Arizona and New Mexico.
