Albuquerque, NM – A cooler and increasingly unsettled pattern is expected across the Southwestern United States during the Thanksgiving travel window, with new long-range federal outlooks showing a near-normal to above-normal precipitation signal for the region from November 23 through November 29. While lower elevations trend toward rain and breezy conditions, higher terrain across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada could see rounds of mountain snow.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the northern half of the Southwest sits under the influence of a developing West Coast trough, allowing colder air to slip into the interior. This setup brings the strongest wintry potential to elevated areas of the Four Corners region, including Flagstaff, the Mogollon Rim, the Chuska Mountains, the Utah Canyonlands, and the high plateaus of northern Arizona and New Mexico.
Northern Arizona—including Flagstaff, Williams, Payson, and the I-40 corridor—holds the highest chance for accumulating snow, especially overnight when colder air deepens. The San Francisco Peaks and Mogollon Rim may experience several rounds of high-elevation snow if storms arrive back-to-back.
In New Mexico, areas around Santa Fe, Taos, Raton Pass, and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains are also positioned for wintry travel conditions. Even light snow may cause delays along I-25, US-64, and mountain passes during peak travel hours.
Farther west, portions of Utah and Nevada, including Cedar City, Brian Head, Ely, and the Wasatch Plateau, may also see mixed precipitation or mountain snow, while the Salt Lake Valley and Las Vegas metro trend toward cold rain or brief showers.
Across the southern Southwest, including Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, Las Cruces, and far West Texas, rain is the dominant outcome. While temperatures remain too warm for snow outside of the highest peaks, periods of heavier rain may slow travel along I-10, I-8, and I-25.
Forecasters expect sharper storm timing and snow-level details early next week as short-range models begin resolving incoming Pacific systems.
