Phoenix, Arizona – Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across much of the Southwest during the final week of July, with a prolonged stretch of summer heat forecast from July 26 through August 1. While monsoon thunderstorms will continue to develop in some areas, they are not expected to significantly reduce the overall warm pattern across the region.
According to the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center’s 8- to 14-day temperature outlook, Arizona, New Mexico, southern Nevada, and portions of southern Utah and far west Texas are favored to experience above-normal temperatures, with a 50% to 70% probability of warmer-than-average conditions. The outlook indicates persistent high pressure will continue to support elevated temperatures across much of the Desert Southwest.
Although the outlook does not specify daily highs, temperatures are expected to average above late July normals, with desert communities likely to experience prolonged periods of intense afternoon heat. Higher elevations will also trend warmer than average, though mountain locations will remain noticeably cooler than the lower deserts.
Cities including Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, Flagstaff, Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Santa Fe, Las Vegas, and St. George should prepare for continued summer heat. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous outdoor activity during the afternoon, wear lightweight clothing, and never leave children or pets inside parked vehicles.
Monsoon moisture is expected to remain active across portions of Arizona and New Mexico, bringing scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and isolated flash flooding, particularly near burn scars, slot canyons, and normally dry washes.
The Climate Prediction Center emphasizes that the outlook reflects broad temperature trends rather than specific daily forecasts. Residents should continue monitoring local National Weather Service forecasts for updated information on heat, monsoon thunderstorms, and any watches or warnings issued as the end of July approaches.
