Los Angeles, CA – Southern California is expected to see a warmer and drier winter than average in 2025-26, according to the preliminary outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS). While the northern U.S. braces for heavy snow, the Southwest is likely to trend mild, with fewer storms overall.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center reports that weak La Niña conditions are developing this fall and are expected to transition toward a neutral phase by mid-winter. Historically, La Niña winters steer the Pacific jet stream north, reducing rainfall across Southern California and leading to prolonged dry stretches.
Meteorologists caution that this forecast is preliminary, and short-term climate drivers can produce unexpected swings. Patterns such as the Pacific-North American (PNA) oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) sometimes redirect storm systems southward, creating brief but impactful rain events and snow in the mountains.
The early signal suggests:
- Above-average temperatures statewide. Cities such as Los Angeles, San Diego, and Riverside will likely experience milder conditions, with fewer cool nights than typical winters.
- Below-average precipitation. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Inland Empire, coastal valleys, and desert regions.
- Mountain snow limited but possible. The San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountains could still see several snow events, though overall totals are expected to be lower than average.
Past La Niña winters in Southern California have produced mixed outcomes. Some years brought extended drought conditions, while others saw storm systems capable of producing flooding rains, mudslides, and mountain snow despite the broader drier trend.
Travel and safety concerns remain, especially in mountain and canyon areas. Highways such as I-15, I-5 (Grapevine), and CA-330 may face temporary closures during mountain snow or heavy rain events. For communities in burn scar zones, even one strong storm could raise mudslide and debris flow risks.
The official NWS winter forecast will be released October 16, but local officials recommend early preparedness. That includes conserving water supplies, monitoring fire danger during dry stretches, and keeping emergency kits on hand for the possibility of sudden storms.
