Atlanta, GA – The Southeast is forecasting a warmer-than-normal holiday week across Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and parts of Virginia and Kentucky before a noticeable cooldown arrives in early December.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook for November 22–28, 2025 places nearly the entire Southeast in the above-normal temperature zone. From Miami to Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Birmingham, Jackson, and Richmond, residents can expect a warm Thanksgiving stretch with highs trending several degrees above typical late-November levels.
Forecasters say the setup is tied to the ongoing La Niña, which is keeping colder air locked in the western U.S. through Thanksgiving while allowing the East and Southeast to remain warm and stable.
But the warmth doesn’t last. The week 3–4 outlook (November 29–December 12) shows near- to slightly below-normal temperatures returning to the Southeast, especially across Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and northern Alabama.
Early December Temperature Outlook by State
- Florida (Miami, Jacksonville): Near-normal temps expected; slight cooling but still warmer than much of the U.S.
- Georgia (Atlanta, Augusta): Lean toward slightly below-normal temps as early December begins.
- North Carolina (Charlotte, Raleigh): Cooler-than-normal conditions likely with increased early-season frost.
- South Carolina (Columbia, Charleston): Mild Thanksgiving with a modest early December cooldown.
- Tennessee (Nashville, Memphis): Stronger signal for below-normal temps; frost and freeze cycles likely.
- Alabama (Birmingham, Mobile): Cooling trend sets in after Nov. 29 with more seasonable-to-colder days.
- Mississippi (Jackson, Gulfport): Warm Thanksgiving, then cooler pattern develops first half of December.
- Virginia (Richmond, Virginia Beach): Trending cooler into early December with increased morning chill.
- Kentucky (Louisville, Lexington): Below-normal temps favored in early December with winter-like mornings.
Travelers across the Southeast should expect smooth, warm conditions for Thanksgiving but prepare for a colder and more seasonable temperature shift soon after the holiday.
