Pierre, SD – South Dakotans are no strangers to harsh winters, but the outlook for 2025–26 is still up in the air. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary forecast shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across the state, keeping both blizzard risks and mild stretches possible.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before fading into ENSO-neutral during winter. That transition reduces forecast confidence and makes South Dakota highly dependent on short-term weather drivers.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that shifts in the Arctic Oscillation or sudden polar vortex disruptions could steer Arctic air deep into the Plains—fueling major snowstorms.
What It Means for South Dakota
- Western South Dakota (Rapid City, Black Hills): Cold air pooling in higher terrain makes this region more likely to see frequent snow events and potential blizzard conditions when Pacific systems cross the Rockies.
- Central South Dakota (Pierre, Chamberlain): Often experiences the state’s biggest temperature swings, with outcomes ranging from snow-packed systems to icy mixes depending on storm track.
- Eastern South Dakota (Sioux Falls, Brookings, Watertown): Vulnerable to powerful Plains blizzards, though midwinter thaws and ice storms are also possible in ENSO-neutral winters.
Past neutral winters have brought some of the state’s most disruptive blizzards, underscoring that a lack of a strong seasonal signal does not mean an easy winter.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: South Dakota faces a 50/50 snow-risk outlook for Winter 2025–26. While there’s no guarantee of a snow-heavy season, the potential for blizzards, whiteouts, and dangerous travel conditions remains high.
Meteorologists also warn that a warmer-than-average fall may give way to a stormy December, with the first major systems striking earlier than expected.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering more clarity on what South Dakotans should prepare for this year.
