Rapid City, South Dakota – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across western South Dakota, increasing the likelihood of prolonged winter weather impacts in the region.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), western South Dakota is included in a broad corridor of elevated snowfall probabilities extending from the central Rockies into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The outlook points to a higher chance of more frequent or longer-duration snow events compared to typical February conditions.
Areas west of the Missouri River, including the Black Hills and surrounding plains, show a stronger signal for increased snowfall potential than eastern portions of the state. Orographic effects in the Black Hills may further enhance snowfall totals during passing winter systems.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific snowfall totals or storm timing. Instead, they assess how total snowfall during the month may compare to long-term averages. For February 2026, the guidance suggests cumulative snowfall or the number of snow events could exceed normal levels across western South Dakota.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal to below-normal conditions across the region. This temperature profile supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during most systems, particularly during Arctic air intrusions and upslope snow events.
Neighboring regions including Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a broader regional winter pattern rather than isolated storms.
Residents, commuters, and freight operators across western South Dakota are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
