Columbia, South Carolina – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring below-normal precipitation across South Carolina, increasing the likelihood of a drier-than-average late winter month statewide.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), South Carolina is placed in a below-normal precipitation category for February 2026. This designation indicates a higher probability that total monthly rainfall will fall below long-term February averages.
The dry signal spans the entire state, including the Upstate, Midlands, and coastal Lowcountry. While individual storm systems and cold fronts may still bring brief rain events, the outlook suggests fewer widespread or soaking rainfall episodes than typically expected during February.
CPC monthly outlooks do not forecast individual storms or rainfall totals. Instead, they assess how overall precipitation for the month is likely to compare to historical norms. For South Carolina, below-normal precipitation often means longer dry stretches between systems and limited inland moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the Southeast, including South Carolina. This warmer pattern, combined with reduced rainfall, may contribute to dry soils, elevated wildfire risk, and increased water demand, particularly in agricultural areas.
February typically marks a transition period between winter and early spring across the state. The February 2026 outlook suggests that transition may lean drier than usual, especially if warmer conditions persist.
Residents, farmers, water managers, and wildfire agencies across South Carolina are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, particularly if dry conditions extend into early spring.
