Richmond, VA – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Virginia during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, including all of Virginia. This pattern follows recent winter cold and signals a temporary transition toward milder mid-February conditions.
In Richmond and central Virginia, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the mid-40s to near 50 degrees. Forecast guidance suggests highs may frequently reach the 50s during this period. Northern Virginia, including the I-95 and I-66 corridors, is also expected to trend milder, while Hampton Roads may see even warmer daytime temperatures due to marine influence.
Across western Virginia, including the Blue Ridge and Appalachian regions near Roanoke and Blacksburg, temperatures are expected to rise above seasonal averages, though snowpack at higher elevations may persist. As temperatures climb, snowmelt could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems, particularly in mountainous terrain.
Transportation corridors such as I-95, I-81, I-64, I-66, and U.S. Route 29 are especially sensitive to ponding and drainage issues during rapid warmups. The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook shows near to above-normal precipitation potential, meaning rainfall combined with snowmelt could elevate the risk of localized flooding.
Rivers including the James, Potomac, Rappahannock, Shenandoah, and New River may see rises during this period. Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on mountain streams and smaller waterways, increasing hazards.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may experience more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded or higher-elevation areas.
Residents across Virginia are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
