St. Paul, MN – From the Twin Cities to the Iron Range, Minnesotans are bracing for another unpredictable winter. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Minnesota, leaving both snow lovers and snow haters guessing.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall, before transitioning back to ENSO-neutral during winter. That shift reduces long-range forecast confidence and puts more weight on short-term atmospheric drivers.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters cautioned, noting that factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and sudden polar vortex disruptions could swing conditions sharply toward either blizzards or mild spells.
What It Means for Minnesota
- Northern Minnesota (Duluth, International Falls, Iron Range): Historically colder with higher odds of consistent snowfall. Lake-effect snow off Lake Superior could add to totals.
- Central Minnesota (St. Cloud, Brainerd): A true toss-up, with snow outcomes tied to storm track and intensity. Some years bring repeated heavy systems; others trend milder.
- Southern Minnesota (Twin Cities, Rochester, Mankato): More vulnerable to rain–snow mix events, but major Midwest winter storms remain capable of delivering blizzards.
ENSO-neutral winters in Minnesota have often produced wild swings between frigid outbreaks and midwinter thaws, sometimes within the same month. That pattern makes preparations critical, even when snowfall forecasts are uncertain.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Minnesota is in a 50/50 snow-risk zone for Winter 2025–26. There is no strong signal pointing toward an exceptionally snowy or mild year—but the threat of blizzards and disruptive storms remains very much alive.
Meteorologists caution that a warmer-than-normal fall may flip abruptly into stormy conditions by December, catching commuters and travelers off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may give Minnesotans a clearer picture of what to expect.
