Harrisburg, PA – From Erie to Philadelphia, Pennsylvanians are bracing for what could be a volatile winter. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary Winter 2025–26 outlook shows no strong lean one way or the other, with equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across the Keystone State.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected to form this fall before fading into ENSO-neutral conditions by winter. That transition makes the long-range picture especially murky for Pennsylvania.
“Predictability is very low right now,” meteorologists explained, noting that short-term atmospheric patterns—sometimes called ‘wild cards’—could determine whether Pennsylvania faces heavy storms or extended mild periods.
What It Means for Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania winters are notoriously split by geography:
- Northwest and snowbelt regions near Erie: Likely to see lake-effect snow events, which can produce heavy accumulations even in otherwise quiet winters.
- Central and northern mountains: Historically lean colder in weak La Niña years, raising the risk of significant snowfalls.
- Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the I-95 corridor: Remain highly vulnerable to storm track shifts. A single nor’easter can deliver blizzard conditions—or, if the storm hugs the coast, bring mostly rain and ice.
ENSO-neutral winters in the past have produced some of Pennsylvania’s most memorable snowstorms, underscoring the continued risk even without a strong seasonal signal.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Pennsylvania faces a 50/50 winter outlook. While there’s no guarantee of a snow-heavy season, the potential for disruptive storms remains high. Ice storms and mixed precipitation events—especially common in the I-81 and I-95 corridors—could become a bigger hazard than snow alone.
Forecasters also caution that a warmer-than-average fall could transition sharply into a stormy December, catching commuters and travelers off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook is scheduled for release October 16, which may provide more clarity on what Pennsylvania residents should expect this season.
