Philadelphia, PA – A surge of unseasonable warmth could spread across Pennsylvania within days, accelerating snowmelt and increasing runoff concerns before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations ramp up statewide.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through the Mid-Atlantic and deep into the Southeast. Pennsylvania sits squarely inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run significantly above early March averages from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh.
In Philadelphia, where typical early March highs reach the mid-40s, afternoon temperatures could climb well beyond seasonal norms. Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Allentown are also expected to see milder afternoons and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreezing but speeding up the thaw of remaining snowpack, especially across central and western counties.
The precipitation outlook adds a second concern. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the eastern United States during the March 6-12 window, with the strongest signals surrounding the Great Lakes. That places northwestern Pennsylvania, including Erie, closer to the corridor of enhanced precipitation.
The combination of elevated temperatures and repeated rain events could lead to rising water levels along the Susquehanna, Allegheny and Ohio rivers, along with minor urban flooding in low-lying neighborhoods and poor drainage areas. Drivers should watch for standing water on the Pennsylvania Turnpike and I-76 during heavier downpours.
This warm, unsettled pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with updated outlooks likely as confidence increases heading into mid-March.
