Portland, OR – Oregon is heading into the December 13–26 holiday stretch with a pattern that strongly favors rain over snow for much of the state’s population centers, according to new NOAA long-range outlooks. While the Cascades and higher terrain may see significant snowfall, lowland areas — including Portland, Salem, Eugene, and the I-5 corridor — are unlikely to see a white Christmas under the current setup.
NOAA’s latest maps place Oregon in a notable “Above Normal” precipitation zone through Christmas week, signaling a steady flow of incoming Pacific systems. These storms will deliver plenty of moisture, but temperatures look too warm for widespread snow outside the mountains.
Temperature trends lean firmly mild. Most of western Oregon falls within a “Leaning Above Normal” temperature pattern, meaning snow levels will likely remain elevated. Even a few degrees of warming makes a major difference along the I-5 corridor, where snow typically requires a rare mix of cold air, east winds, and well-timed moisture — none of which show strong signals in this year’s pattern.
According to NOAA meteorologists, this combination of warm Pacific air and high moisture creates a classic December setup for the region:
– Rain for the valleys
– Snow for the Cascades and eastern Oregon
The Cascades are expected to see significant snowfall during the period, with heavy snow possible especially during the December 18–24 window. This may create hazardous travel across mountain passes including Government Camp, Santiam Pass, and Willamette Pass.
Eastern Oregon — including Bend, La Grande, and Baker City — stands a better chance of seeing snow if colder air filters into the high desert. Still, above-normal precipitation paired with borderline temperatures suggests a rain–snow mix is possible, but widespread early-season cold is not favored.
For the Portland metro and most of western Oregon, a wet Christmas remains the overwhelmingly likely scenario.
Residents planning mountain travel should prepare for potentially heavy snow and monitor updated forecasts as December approaches.
