Eugene, OR – The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a critical fire weather outlook for parts of south-central Oregon, far northeast California, and northern Nevada on Sunday.
According to the NWS, a strong upper ridge over the Western U.S. will coincide with a weak upper trough, bringing mid-level moisture and scattered dry thunderstorms to the Northwest and northern Great Basin. These conditions, combined with very warm temperatures and dry fuels, significantly increase the risk of lightning activity and potential fire ignitions.
The NWS predicts isolated thunderstorms will occur early in the period, especially west of the Cascades and towards the Coastal ranges of Washington and Oregon. While these storms are expected to diminish by morning, lightning remains a threat in areas with dry fuels.
A second round of storms is anticipated to develop by early to mid-afternoon, driven by diurnal heating and weak atmospheric ascent. The thunderstorms will be fast-moving, with little potential for wetting rainfall, thus increasing fire risks. Scattered storms across the higher terrain of the Cascades and northern Great Basin from northern Nevada and California into Oregon and Washington will heighten the potential for lightning ignitions and gusty, erratic winds.
Given the volatile state of the area fuels and significant ongoing fire activity, the introduction of critical dry thunderstorm probabilities underscores the heightened fire risk for Sunday. Residents in the affected areas are advised to remain vigilant and prepare for potential fire outbreaks.
