Oklahoma City, OK – A surge of springlike warmth could take hold across Oklahoma within days, increasing the risk of rapid grass growth, elevated fire danger and fluctuating river levels before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is a 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the southern Plains through the Midwest and down toward the Gulf Coast. Oklahoma sits firmly within that warm corridor, signaling highs that could trend well above early March averages statewide.
In Oklahoma City, where typical early March highs hover in the upper 50s, afternoon readings could climb noticeably higher. Tulsa and Stillwater are also expected to see warmer afternoons and milder overnight lows, limiting frost concerns and pushing soil temperatures upward.
While the strongest precipitation signals are positioned farther east into Arkansas and the lower Mississippi Valley, periods of rain remain possible across eastern Oklahoma during the March 6-12 window. Western sections may see fewer rain opportunities but continued warmth.
The combination of elevated temperatures and occasional rain could cause gradual rises along the Arkansas and Red rivers. At the same time, drier intervals in western counties may increase grass fire risk, especially along I-40, I-44 and U.S. 69 corridors during breezy afternoons.
Residents should monitor local advisories, avoid outdoor burning on dry days and stay alert for changing fire conditions. This milder pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as the timeframe approaches.
