Oklahoma City, Oklahoma – A drier late-winter pattern is expected to take hold across Oklahoma heading into early March, increasing the probability that rainfall totals trend below seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, much of Oklahoma carries a 40% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation in the Week 3-4 outlook. The drier signal spans the Interstate 35 corridor from the Kansas border through Oklahoma City to the Red River, east along Interstate 40 toward Fort Smith, and northeast along Interstate 44 into Tulsa.
This extended-range guidance favors a suppressed storm track across the southern Plains, limiting the frequency of widespread rain-producing systems compared to late-February norms. While isolated systems remain possible, the broader atmospheric setup suggests fewer organized, soaking rainfall events statewide.
Temperatures during the same period lean near to slightly above average across much of Oklahoma, supporting a gradual seasonal transition without prolonged cold-driven precipitation episodes.
Communities including Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, Lawton and Enid fall within this drier signal. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily rainfall totals.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on any developing systems.
