Oklahoma City, OK – From Tulsa to Lawton, Oklahomans are asking whether this winter will bring snow-packed storms, crippling ice, or another season of mild swings. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 offers no firm direction, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Oklahoma.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall, shifting back to ENSO-neutral during winter. That setup typically brings volatile conditions across the Southern Plains, where small storm track changes can mean the difference between a snowstorm, an ice storm, or just cold rain.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that short-term drivers like the Arctic Oscillation could send Arctic air plunging south—fueling disruptive winter storms in Oklahoma.
What It Means for Oklahoma
- Northern Oklahoma (Tulsa, Ponca City, Stillwater): More exposed to colder air, giving higher odds for measurable snow when systems track through the Plains.
- Central Oklahoma (Oklahoma City, Norman): A classic ice storm risk zone, where freezing rain often causes more damage than snow, especially when Gulf moisture collides with Arctic fronts.
- Southern Oklahoma (Ardmore, Lawton, Durant): More likely to see cold rain events, but sudden pushes of Arctic air could still trigger ice or snow outbreaks.
ENSO-neutral winters in the past have brought both crippling ice storms and blizzard-level snow events to Oklahoma, underscoring the uncertainty this year.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Oklahoma faces a 50/50 outlook for Winter 2025–26. While there’s no strong signal pointing to an extreme season, the threat of ice storms, power outages, and disruptive winter weather remains high.
Meteorologists warn that with a warmer-than-average fall underway, December could flip abruptly to stormy conditions, catching communities off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may sharpen guidance on how storms will impact Oklahoma.
