Oklahoma City, Oklahoma – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across Oklahoma, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Oklahoma is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For Oklahoma, this suggests February 2026 could feature a variable mix of rain, occasional snow, sleet, or freezing rain depending on storm timing and the depth of cold-air intrusions from the north.
Northern Oklahoma may be more susceptible to snow or wintry mix during stronger Arctic outbreaks, while central and southern portions of the state are more likely to see rain or mixed precipitation during marginal temperature setups. Small shifts in storm track can significantly influence precipitation type across the region.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Southern Plains. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood of mixed winter precipitation rather than sustained snow cover.
Surrounding states including Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, and Colorado also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across the Southern Plains.
Commuters, freight operators, energy workers, and residents across Oklahoma are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, precipitation type, and potential travel impacts.
