Oklahoma City, OK – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Oklahoma during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern Plains, including all of Oklahoma. This transition follows recent winter variability and signals a temporary move toward milder mid-February conditions.
In central Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and communities along the I-35 corridor, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-50s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the upper 50s and 60s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of freezing temperatures across much of the state.
Across northeastern Oklahoma, including Tulsa, Broken Arrow, and Bartlesville, temperatures are forecast to trend above normal, leading to more consistent afternoon warming. Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle, including Clinton, Elk City, and Guymon, are also expected to see milder daytime temperatures, though cooler mornings may persist in open and rural areas.
As temperatures rise, any lingering snow or ice from earlier winter systems is expected to melt. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-35, I-40, I-44, U.S. Highway 75, and U.S. Highway 81 are particularly sensitive to ponding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with warming temperatures could contribute to rises on rivers including the Arkansas, Canadian, Red, Cimarron, and Verdigris.
Warming conditions may also weaken ice on small ponds and waterways, creating hazards for recreation and agriculture. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid unstable ice during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons statewide, but officials caution that late-winter weather changes remain possible.
Residents across Oklahoma are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
