Columbus, OH – A surge of unseasonable warmth could take hold across Ohio within days, accelerating snowmelt and increasing the risk of rising rivers before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations begin statewide.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the East Coast westward into the Ohio Valley. Ohio sits firmly within that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run significantly above early March averages from Cincinnati to Cleveland.
In Columbus, where typical early March highs hover in the mid-40s, afternoon readings could climb well beyond seasonal norms. Cincinnati and Dayton are also expected to see milder afternoons and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreeze concerns but speeding up the thaw of any remaining snowpack.
The precipitation outlook raises additional concerns, especially across northern Ohio. NOAA highlights a corridor of well above normal precipitation surrounding the Great Lakes, including northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and southern Michigan. Cities such as Toledo and Cleveland are closer to the axis of heavier rainfall potential during the March 6-12 window.
That combination of warmth and repeated rain events could lead to rising water levels along the Maumee, Cuyahoga and Ohio rivers, along with minor urban flooding in low-lying neighborhoods and along major routes such as I-75, I-71 and I-90. Residents should monitor river forecasts and avoid driving through water-covered roads.
This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with updated outlooks likely as confidence increases heading into mid-March.
