Nashville, Tennessee – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across northern and western Tennessee, increasing the potential for winter weather impacts in areas that often see variable February conditions.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), northern and western portions of Tennessee fall within a broad corridor of elevated snowfall probabilities extending from the Midwest through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The outlook points to a higher chance of prolonged or more frequent snow activity compared to typical February averages.
Northern Tennessee, including areas near the Kentucky border, shows a stronger signal for increased snowfall potential. Western Tennessee, including the Mississippi River corridor and surrounding communities, is also included in the above-normal zone, suggesting winter systems may penetrate farther south than in some recent years.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific snowfall totals or storm timing. Instead, they assess how total snowfall during the month may compare to long-term averages. For February 2026, the guidance suggests cumulative snowfall or the number of snow events could exceed normal levels across northern and western Tennessee.
Temperature outlooks indicate near-normal conditions across much of Tennessee during February. This temperature pattern supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during colder systems, particularly overnight or during stronger Arctic intrusions.
Neighboring states including Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a regional winter pattern rather than isolated storms.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across northern and western Tennessee are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
