Columbia, Missouri – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across northern and eastern Missouri, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), northern and eastern Missouri are currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For northern and eastern Missouri, this suggests February 2026 could feature a variable mix of snow, rain, and mixed-precipitation events depending on storm timing, track, and cold-air availability.
Northern Missouri may still experience accumulating snow during stronger cold-air intrusions, while eastern sections—including areas near the Mississippi River and the St. Louis metro—are more susceptible to rain or rain-snow mix during marginal temperature setups. Small temperature shifts will likely determine precipitation type during individual systems.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of Missouri. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood of fluctuating precipitation types rather than sustained winter weather.
Surrounding regions including Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Commuters, river transportation workers, agricultural operators, and freight carriers across northern and eastern Missouri are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, precipitation type, and travel impacts.
