Flagstaff, Arizona – Winter is showing no signs of an early exit across northern Arizona, as Groundhog Day tradition aligns with long-range climate signals pointing to a slow transition toward spring. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow Monday morning, signaling six more weeks of winter and pushing expectations for a reliable warm-up closer to mid-March.
According to the National Weather Service, northern Arizona falls into an “equal chances” category for temperatures from February through April. That outlook keeps the potential for late-season cold snaps, mountain snow, and sharp temperature swings firmly in place. Flagstaff, Williams, and the Kaibab Plateau remain especially vulnerable to additional snow events, while Prescott and the Mogollon Rim could see periods of snow or cold rain linger well into March.
Precipitation trends support continued winter impacts. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, parts of the Southwest, including northern Arizona, are expected to see near to above-normal precipitation through early spring. That favors additional snowfall at higher elevations and periodic rain or snow events that can affect travel along I-40, I-17, Highway 89, and mountain routes leading toward the Grand Canyon.
While the Farmers’ Almanac notes spring officially begins Friday, March 20, and highlights a total lunar eclipse early Tuesday, March 3, winter weather influences may persist beyond those calendar milestones. Northern Arizona residents and travelers are encouraged to remain winter-ready, monitor ADOT road conditions, and plan for changing weather, as snow, cold, and travel impacts may continue into early spring.
