Sioux Falls, South Dakota – A noticeable late-winter warm-up is taking shape across the Dakotas, bringing a break from persistent cold and signaling a quieter stretch of weather for the Northern Plains. While it will not feel like spring everywhere, temperatures are expected to run above seasonal norms, improving travel and reducing extreme cold exposure.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, the Feb. 9–15 outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of both North Dakota and South Dakota. The strongest signal is focused over the central Plains, extending north into the Dakotas and marking a clear shift away from sustained Arctic air.
In South Dakota, including Sioux Falls, Mitchell, and Rapid City, daytime highs are expected to climb into the 30s and 40s, helping ease daytime ice issues and improve road conditions. Central and southern areas are likely to see the most noticeable moderation.
North Dakota warms more gradually, but cities such as Fargo, Bismarck, and Jamestown should still trend milder than recent weeks, with highs edging into the 20s and 30s during the warmest periods. Bitter wind chills are less likely during this stretch.
Despite the warming trend, the pattern remains dry. No organized snow systems are evident, limiting travel disruptions but offering little new moisture.
Overnight refreezing remains possible, especially on untreated surfaces. Additional outlooks will determine whether this milder pattern holds deeper into February or if colder air returns to the Northern Plains.
