Sacramento, California – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across north-central California, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), north-central California is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm track placement and temperature variability. For north-central California, this suggests February 2026 could feature a mix of rain events in lower elevations and periodic snow in higher terrain, depending on storm strength and the depth of colder air.
The Sacramento Valley and surrounding lowland areas are more likely to experience rain during most systems, while the Sierra Nevada and foothill communities may still see accumulating snow during colder Pacific storms. Small changes in storm intensity or snow levels will play a major role in determining impacts.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of California. This temperature profile supports fluctuating snow levels rather than consistently cold conditions, increasing the likelihood of rain-snow transitions during individual systems.
Surrounding regions, including the Sierra Nevada, northern California, Nevada, and Oregon, also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter storms will favor snow versus rain across the region.
Commuters, mountain travelers, water managers, and agricultural interests across north-central California are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, snow levels, and travel impacts.
