ATLANTA, Ga. – NOAA’s just-released Winter 2025–2026 outlook, issued Thursday, Oct. 16, points toward a milder, drier pattern for much of the Southeastern United States — meaning snow lovers may have to travel north for a white Christmas this year. The agency’s seasonal guidance suggests above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from December through February, a pattern commonly tied to La Niña winters.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the warm and dry setup will dominate from eastern Texas through the Deep South and into the Carolinas. NOAA’s maps show the strongest signal for below-average rainfall across Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida, where soil moisture may drop heading into early 2026. While brief cold snaps are still possible, forecasters say major snow or ice events appear unlikely except in higher elevations of North Carolina and Tennessee.
La Niña typically steers the winter storm track farther north, leaving the Southeast under more sunshine and occasional cool fronts. “It doesn’t rule out one or two wintry surprises,” meteorologists caution, “but widespread winter weather looks less probable.” Even so, early mornings could still bring frost and patchy black ice on bridges during January and February cold spells.
Travelers along I-75, I-85, and I-95 should expect mostly smooth holiday driving conditions, though drought conditions could emerge by late winter if rains fail to return. By March 2026, NOAA expects a gradual transition toward more active spring fronts, potentially ending the region’s dry streak.
