Newark, New Jersey – The risk of a significant winter storm affecting New Jersey is increasing, as forecasters signal a strengthening system that could bring accumulating snow and dangerous travel conditions to the state this weekend, according to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
The outlook focuses on the period from 7 p.m. Friday through 7 p.m. Monday, when a developing storm system may impact the Interstate 95 corridor, including Newark, Jersey City, Trenton, and much of northern and central New Jersey.
As of Monday evening, New Jersey is now included in a 20% probability area for at least moderate winter storm impacts, with forecasters noting that probabilities are trending upward as model agreement improves. Officials emphasize that while details are not finalized, confidence in measurable impacts is increasing.
What forecasters know:
- Very cold Arctic air will be firmly in place across the Mid-Atlantic, meaning any precipitation will fall as snow, including along the coast.
- A high-altitude disturbance is expected to dive out of Canada on Thursday, then strengthen across the eastern U.S. by Saturday.
- This evolution is likely to produce a surface low-pressure system, which could track close enough to the coast to impact New Jersey.
- If the storm track shifts slightly inland, snowfall could become widespread, especially along I-95, the New Jersey Turnpike, and Garden State Parkway.
What remains uncertain:
- The exact coastal track of the surface low
- Whether heavier snow bands set up over northern New Jersey or shift offshore
- The duration and intensity of snowfall during the Friday–Monday window
Because temperatures are expected to remain below freezing throughout the event, even moderate snowfall could lead to extended icy road conditions, reduced visibility, and significant travel delays, particularly during overnight hours and early-morning commutes.
Residents are urged to closely monitor forecast updates through midweek, especially those planning weekend travel, as probabilities may continue to rise if confidence increases.
