Albany, NY – New York may head into a wetter and occasionally wintry stretch during the Thanksgiving travel window, as new long-range federal outlooks show a 33–40% probability of above-normal precipitation statewide from November 23 through November 29.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook issued Saturday, New York sits just east of a broader moisture corridor developing across the Great Lakes and Appalachians. While the precipitation signal is not as strong as areas farther west, it remains high enough to create travel concerns when combined with seasonably cold temperatures.
Upstate regions—including Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Watertown, and the Tug Hill Plateau—sit closest to colder air and lake-effect snow potential. Even with a modest probability signal, late-November systems interacting with the Great Lakes can produce bursts of wet snow or mixed precipitation, particularly during overnight and morning hours.
In the Capital Region and Hudson Valley, including Albany, Kingston, and Poughkeepsie, temperatures may fluctuate near the rain–snow line through the period. This could lead to chilly rain at times, with the possibility of wet snow if colder air dips south during the middle or late part of the week.
Downstate areas—New York City, Long Island, and Westchester—remain in the same 33–40% wet-signal zone, though warmer coastal temperatures should favor cold rain. However, travel slowdowns remain possible, especially if precipitation arrives during peak holiday traffic periods.
Thanksgiving week historically brings some of New York’s heaviest travel volume along I-87, the Thruway, I-95, and major downstate corridors. Air travel delays are also possible at JFK, LaGuardia, Newark, Buffalo, and Albany if systems align with high-departure windows.
Forecasters expect clearer details early next week as short-range models begin to identify individual storm systems.
