Albany, NY – From Buffalo to Long Island, New Yorkers are asking the same question: will this winter bring blizzards back to the Empire State, or will conditions stay closer to normal? The preliminary Winter 2025–26 outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS) offers no clear answer yet, showing equal chances for above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across New York.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is likely this fall (71% chance), before trending back toward ENSO-neutral conditions this winter. That shift makes long-range outlooks especially tricky.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters noted, adding that short-term ‘wild card’ weather drivers will likely determine whether New York sees major storms or a quieter season. These include the Arctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can flip patterns from mild to stormy in just a few weeks.
What It Means for New York
Historically, weak La Niña winters have delivered colder-than-average conditions across northern New York, with variable snowfall from year to year. That means areas like the Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau could still see big snow years, while downstate and coastal regions may experience more rain-snow mix events.
The lake-effect snow belts near Buffalo and Syracuse also remain high-risk zones. Even in ENSO-neutral winters, lake-effect events have produced record-breaking storms when conditions align. For New York City and Long Island, the story is different—coastal nor’easters remain the wild card, capable of dropping feet of snow or bringing little more than cold rain.
The Bottom Line
New York’s Winter 2025–26 forecast is a 50/50 scenario—no guarantee of a blockbuster snow year, but no reason to rule it out either. A warmer-than-normal fall is expected to transition sharply, meaning winter could arrive suddenly in December with disruptive storms.
Residents, commuters, and city officials should prepare for the possibility of major snow events, travel disruptions, and coastal impacts, even if the season averages out to near-normal totals.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering more clarity on New York’s snow and storm potential.
