New York City, NY – New Yorkers could be heading into 2026 with near-record warmth, as long-range forecasts point to unusually mild temperatures settling in across the state after Christmas and lasting into the New Year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 8–14 day temperature outlook for Saturday, December 27 through Friday, January 2 shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures across New York, including New York City, Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and much of upstate.
For New York City, this could translate to daytime highs climbing well above seasonal averages during a period that typically delivers some of the coldest weather of the year. While exact temperatures will be refined closer to the date, forecasters say the pattern favors one of the warmest late-December to early-January stretches in recent years, with some daily readings potentially challenging long-standing records.
The warmth is being driven by a broad ridge of high pressure expected to dominate much of the eastern United States, limiting Arctic air intrusions and keeping storm tracks largely to the west or north.
Looking ahead, NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026 suggests the mild pattern may not end with the New Year. While confidence decreases further out, the early January forecast continues to lean above average for temperatures across much of New York, especially in downstate and coastal areas.
The extended warmth could impact everything from energy demand and travel conditions to winter recreation and snowpack across the region. Residents are still advised to remain weather-aware, as rapid pattern shifts are possible during winter.
More refined, short-term forecasts will be issued as the holiday period approaches.
