New York, New York – A measurable warming trend is expected to expand across New York State as February transitions into March, increasing the likelihood that winter’s most persistent cold relaxes during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, New York carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. The warmer signal stretches from western New York near Buffalo along Interstate 90 to the Hudson Valley, Interstate 87 corridor and downstate communities including New York City and Long Island.
This broader climate pattern favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While short-lived cold snaps remain possible, extended Arctic outbreaks appear less favored in the large-scale atmospheric setup impacting major travel corridors such as I-90, I-87, I-81 and I-95.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal statewide. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a clear indication of excessive snowfall or prolonged dry conditions.
Communities from Syracuse and Albany to Rochester and New York City fall within this gradual transition pattern. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects broad atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily weather details.
Further refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides additional clarity.
