Albany, New York – A surge of Arctic air is expected to push into New York between Jan. 18 and Jan. 22, bringing a high likelihood of below-normal temperatures as a fast-moving clipper system reinforces a colder pattern across the eastern United States.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook, New York has a 70% probability of temperatures falling below normal during this period. This shift follows the breakdown of a recent mild pattern, as strong ridging across the western U.S. and Alaska allows a deep trough of cold air to settle over the East.
Daytime highs are expected to trend several degrees below mid-January averages, with overnight lows dropping sharply, especially across upstate New York and interior valleys. While exact wind chill values remain uncertain, brief subzero wind chills are possible during overnight and early morning hours if winds increase behind the clipper system.
Despite the colder air, widespread snow or significant precipitation is not currently signaled. Forecast guidance shows precipitation chances remaining near normal for this time of year, reflecting limited moisture availability within the Arctic air mass. Any snow that does occur would likely be light and associated with the passing clipper or localized lake-effect activity.
Regionally, the cold pattern will dominate much of the Northeast, while the only areas favored for above-normal temperatures during this window include parts of Maine, northern Michigan, and northern Wisconsin, according to CPC outlooks.
For New York commuters and outdoor workers, the primary impacts will be cold exposure risks and increased heating demand, rather than travel-disrupting snowfall. Residents are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as the temperature outlook becomes more refined later this week.
