New York City, New York – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across New York City, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant snowfall pattern.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), New York City is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This classification indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature trends. For New York City, this suggests February 2026 could feature a wide range of winter weather outcomes, including rain events, snowstorms, and periods of mixed precipitation depending on timing, storm strength, and cold-air availability.
As a coastal and urban environment, New York City is particularly sensitive to small temperature fluctuations. Marginal systems may produce rain or rain-snow mixes, while colder intrusions could still support accumulating snowfall, especially during overnight or stronger winter storms.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood of variable precipitation types throughout the month.
Surrounding areas of New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain in the metro region.
Commuters, transit users, and air travelers in New York City are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better resolve storm timing and precipitation type.
