Albuquerque, NM – New Mexico could experience a milder-than-normal winter overall in 2025-26, but forecasters caution that the risk of disruptive snow and ice storms remains. The preliminary winter outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS) suggests warmer conditions statewide, with precipitation outcomes depending heavily on storm tracks.
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are forming this fall, expected to shift toward neutral mid-winter. Historically, La Niña winters tend to bring drier and warmer weather across much of the Southwest. However, meteorologists warn that short-term atmospheric drivers can override that general pattern.
Climate systems such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) may pull colder air into the region at times, leading to periods of snow in the mountains and wintry mix events across central and northern New Mexico. “Even in warmer winters, New Mexico can still see dangerous winter storms when Arctic fronts align with moisture,” forecasters explained in their September guidance.
The early signal points to:
- Above-normal temperatures statewide. Cities like Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Roswell are likely to trend warmer, with fewer prolonged cold spells.
- Variable precipitation. Northern New Mexico and higher elevations, including Santa Fe, Taos, and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, may still see significant snowfall, especially if storms tap into Gulf or Pacific moisture. Central and southern areas are more likely to lean dry.
Historical records illustrate the risk. Some past La Niña winters brought below-average snowpack and drought stress, while others produced strong storms that buried mountain passes and caused travel shutdowns on interstates.
Travel remains a top concern, particularly in I-25 and I-40 corridors that cut through mountain passes. Even a single snowstorm can close stretches of highway for hours. In northern counties, drifting snow and icy conditions often create dangerous driving environments.
The official NWS winter forecast is scheduled for release on October 16, but state officials urge preparation now. That includes checking heating systems, stocking up on firewood or propane, and keeping emergency kits ready at home and in vehicles. Farmers and ranchers are also advised to monitor water and feed supplies, given the possibility of short dry spells alternating with sudden cold waves.
