Trenton, NJ – Will New Jersey be buried in snow this winter—or drenched with rain from coastal storms? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 keeps the forecast wide open, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across the Garden State.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is projected this fall before fading back to ENSO-neutral conditions by winter. This transition means long-range predictability is very low.
“Short-term atmospheric drivers will likely make the difference this season,” forecasters explained, citing factors such as the Arctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can swing storm tracks from mild rain to heavy snow within days.
What It Means for New Jersey
New Jersey winters often hinge on storm track position:
- Northwest New Jersey (Sussex, Warren counties): More likely to see colder air locked in, raising the chances for accumulating snow.
- Central New Jersey and I-95 corridor (Trenton, New Brunswick): High risk of mixed precipitation or ice events, especially when coastal nor’easters track close to shore.
- South Jersey and the Shore (Atlantic City, Cape May): More vulnerable to rain or slushy mixes, but still at risk from nor’easters that can deliver coastal flooding along with bursts of snow.
ENSO-neutral winters have historically produced some of the region’s most disruptive nor’easters, proving that the absence of a strong seasonal pattern does not rule out major storms.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: New Jersey is in a 50/50 winter risk zone. While the forecast doesn’t guarantee heavy snow, residents should still prepare for the possibility of significant storms, icy commutes, and coastal flooding events.
Warmer-than-average fall conditions are expected to continue into early October, but forecasters warn that a sudden shift to wintry weather could arrive by late November or December.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering more detailed guidance on what New Jerseyans should expect.
