Newark, NJ – A surge of unseasonable warmth could sweep across New Jersey within days, accelerating snowmelt and increasing the risk of standing water on highways ahead of St. Patrick’s Day celebrations statewide.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. New Jersey sits firmly within that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run significantly above early March averages.
In Newark and Jersey City, where typical early March highs sit in the mid-40s, afternoon readings could climb well beyond seasonal norms. Trenton, Paterson and Atlantic City are also expected to see milder days and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreeze concerns but speeding up the thaw of any remaining snowpack in northern counties.
The precipitation outlook adds another impact. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the eastern United States during the March 6-12 window, with the strongest signals near the Great Lakes. While New Jersey is not in the highest precipitation bullseye, the state remains in a wetter-than-average pattern supportive of repeated rain events.
The combination of warmth and steady rain could lead to minor urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas along the Passaic and Raritan rivers and near major corridors such as the New Jersey Turnpike and Garden State Parkway. Residents should clear storm drains and avoid driving through water-covered roadways during heavier showers.
This warm, unsettled pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with updated outlooks likely as the timeframe approaches.
