Concord, NH – Granite State residents wondering if the 2025–26 winter will bring heavy snow or another mild season will need to stay tuned. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a preliminary outlook showing equal chances for above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across New Hampshire this winter.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, the lack of a strong El Niño or La Niña signal leaves the state in a “coin-flip” scenario. Meteorologists say the most likely setup is a weak La Niña in fall, fading to ENSO-neutral conditions by winter, creating unpredictable patterns across the Northeast.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters cautioned, noting that short-term atmospheric patterns, or ‘wild cards,’ could play a bigger role than usual this season. These include sudden shifts in the Arctic Oscillation or Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can bring everything from frigid outbreaks to sudden thaws—sometimes within the same month.
What It Means for New Hampshire
Historically, weak La Niña winters in New England have tilted toward colder-than-average conditions with snowfall near or slightly above seasonal norms. But the data also shows wide swings: some years produced blockbuster storms, while others leaned drier and milder.
In fact, NOAA data highlights how major blizzards can still strike even in ENSO-neutral winters, especially when short-term patterns align. For New Hampshire, that means the threat of nor’easters and lake-effect influences can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the fall season is shaping up warmer than normal, with September and October temperatures already trending above average. This could mean a sharp transition once true winter patterns take hold in late November or December.
Key Takeaway for Residents
The bottom line: New Hampshire is in a 50/50 snow risk zone heading into Winter 2025–26. While there’s no clear signal pointing toward a historic blizzard season—or a mild miss—the potential remains for both extremes.
That uncertainty makes now the time to prepare. Stock up on winter gear, revisit emergency kits, and start planning for travel disruptions, especially around the holidays.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may provide sharper guidance on whether Granite State residents should brace for a snowy onslaught or a more manageable season.
