Manchester, NH – A rapid warm-up could take hold across New Hampshire within days, triggering accelerated snowmelt and increasing runoff concerns well before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations begin.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through the Southeast and into parts of the Midwest. New Hampshire sits squarely inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could climb well beyond early March averages statewide.
In Manchester, where typical early March highs reach the upper 30s, afternoon readings may trend significantly milder. Concord, Nashua and Portsmouth are also expected to see warmer days and noticeably milder nights, limiting refreezing but speeding up the thaw of any remaining snowpack, especially across southern and central counties.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an active pattern. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the Northeast during the March 6-12 window. While the heaviest precipitation probabilities focus on the Great Lakes region, New Hampshire remains in a corridor supportive of repeated rain events.
That combination of warmth and steady rain could elevate water levels along the Merrimack and Connecticut rivers and lead to minor flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Drivers should watch for standing water on secondary roads and allow extra time during heavier showers.
This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as the timeframe draws closer and confidence increases.
