Boston, MA – Will the Bay State see blockbuster nor’easters this winter—or a milder mix of rain and snow? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary Winter 2025–26 outlook leaves the door wide open, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures for Massachusetts.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected to form this fall (71% chance), before conditions shift back to ENSO-neutral this winter. This transition makes long-range forecasts highly uncertain.
“Predictability is very low this season,” forecasters stressed, adding that short-term ‘wild card’ patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation or Madden-Julian Oscillation could decide whether Massachusetts faces blizzards or mild spells.
What It Means for Massachusetts
For New England, weak La Niña winters often tilt colder inland but can be highly variable along the coast. That sets up Massachusetts for a winter where storm tracks will matter more than broad climate signals.
- Inland areas like Worcester and the Berkshires: More likely to see colder air and accumulating snow when storms move up the coast.
- Boston and coastal Massachusetts: Remain in a higher-risk zone for classic nor’easters, which can drop heavy snow—or shift to rain if warmer Atlantic air takes over.
- Cape Cod and the Islands: Most at risk for rain or icy mix events, but still vulnerable to disruptive coastal storms.
Recent years have proven that even in ENSO-neutral winters, major nor’easters can slam Massachusetts with feet of snow.
Preparing for Uncertainty
The bottom line for Massachusetts residents: this is a 50/50 winter. There’s no clear signal guaranteeing a snow-heavy season, but also no reason to dismiss the chance of crippling nor’easters.
A warmer-than-normal fall is underway, but meteorologists caution the shift to winter could be abrupt, with December storms quickly changing the outlook.
The official NOAA winter forecast will be issued October 16, which may provide sharper guidance on whether Massachusetts should prepare for a heavy-snow season or a more mixed pattern.
