Carson City, NV – From the Sierra Nevada to the Great Basin, Nevadans are watching closely to see what Winter 2025–26 may bring. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures statewide, leaving both snowpack concerns and storm potential in play.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before transitioning into ENSO-neutral conditions this winter. That pattern often creates uncertainty for the interior West, where moisture delivery and storm track alignment make or break the snow season.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, stressing that short-term factors like Pacific storm tracks and the Arctic Oscillation could tip Nevada toward a snowy winter—or leave much of the state drier than normal.
What It Means for Nevada
- Western Nevada (Reno, Lake Tahoe): Heavily dependent on Sierra storm systems, which can deliver heavy mountain snow and critical snowpack. A single atmospheric river event can dramatically boost totals.
- Northern Nevada (Elko, Winnemucca): More variable, with chances for Arctic outbreaks to combine with storm systems, creating snow and cold snaps.
- Southern Nevada (Las Vegas, Henderson): Typically mild with limited snowfall, though ENSO-neutral years have occasionally produced rare desert snow events.
Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin is especially critical for Nevada’s water supply and reservoirs, making this winter’s outcome closely watched even if the forecast is uncertain.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Nevada faces a 50/50 outlook for Winter 2025–26. While there’s no guarantee of an above-normal snowpack, the risk of heavy Sierra storms, travel disruptions along I-80, and cold snaps across the state remains significant.
Meteorologists warn that a warmer-than-average fall may give way to a stormy December, potentially creating early challenges for mountain travel and ski resorts.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may provide sharper guidance on Nevada’s snowpack and storm potential.
